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Mesoscale Discussion 2064
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2064
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of north TX...eastern OK...northwestern
   AR...far southeastern KS...and western/southern MO

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673...

   Valid 102042Z - 102145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Mainly an isolated large hail and damaging wind threat
   continues this afternoon across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673. A
   brief tornado cannot be ruled out in the short term.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have been generally slow to intensify this
   afternoon across central/eastern OK along and ahead of a cold front.
   The environment across this region remains favorable for storm
   organization, with around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-45 kt of
   effective bulk shear. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging
   winds should remain the primary threats through the rest of the
   afternoon. A brief tornado or two also cannot be ruled out given the
   presence of some low-level shear. This threat would mainly exist
   with any storm that can remain ahead of the front in eastern OK and
   far western AR, such as one currently moving from eastern Haskell
   into northern Le Flore County in eastern OK. Through early evening,
   low-level winds will slowly diminish as a southerly low-level jet
   shifts northward into the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest. The loss
   of daytime heating and the undercutting nature of the front should
   also result in a gradual weakening trend to ongoing storms as they
   eventually move eastward out of the corridor of greatest
   instability.

   ..Gleason.. 10/10/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33599799 36159538 38239488 38439374 38159248 37519216
               35379371 34519509 33609637 33599799 

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Page last modified: October 10, 2019
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