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Mesoscale Discussion 2144
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2144
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2019

   Areas affected...Far Southern MS...Far Southern AL...Far Western FL
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071955Z - 072200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts
   and/or a brief tornado are expected across far southern MS, far
   southern AL, and the far western FL Panhandle this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm intensity has modestly increased (as
   evidenced by more numerous lightning strikes). This has occurred
   amidst a marginal increase in temperatures (into the upper 70s/low
   80s) and dewpoints (into the low 70s) within a relatively narrow
   corridor from far southern MS into far southern AL/far western FL
   Panhandle. Recent KMOB VAD profiles reveal moderate low-level shear
   (i.e. 0-1 km shear around 18 kt) supported predominantly by moderate
   veering with height. Wind speeds are relatively weak through 3 km.
   This modest low-level shear coupled with favorable low-level
   thermodynamics (i.e. 0-3 km MLCAPE over 100 J/kg) will support the
   potential for low-level circulations capable of a brief tornado.
   Overall severe coverage is expected to be isolated and a watch is
   not currently anticipated.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 11/07/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30968956 31568853 31508663 30428687 30408917 30968956 

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Page last modified: November 07, 2019
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