Mar 9, 2009 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 9 19:49:14 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090309 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090309 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090309 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090309 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 091945
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2009
   
   VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY SWWD INTO
   THE SRN PLNS...
   
   ...OK/KS INTO MO...
   NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO PREV FCST.
   
   MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING LLVL MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE PROFILES THIS
   AFTN.  TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPR
   50S/NEAR 60 DEG F ARE COMMON ALONG/S OF KS BORDER AT 19Z.  THIS WAS
   RESULTING IN HIGHER BUOYANCY POTENTIAL AND WEAKER CINH.
   
   SATL/PROFILERS SUGGEST NEXT IMPULSE WAS EJECTING INTO THE SPLNS OF W
   TX EARLY THIS AFTN.  AS THIS FEATURE EJECTS NEWD...THE BOUNDARY
   PRESENT FROM NEAR KPNC SWWD INTO SWRN OK SHOULD STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN. 
   ALL MODELS SUGGEST SFC-BASED INITIATION IN THIS CORRIDOR BY LATE
   AFTN.  STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND 2-6KM SHEAR
   ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.
   
   TORNADO RISK WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ALONG/N OF
   I-44 FROM CNTRL/NERN OK INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO.  MESO-LOW HAS
   FORMED NEAR SEILING OK AND WILL LIKELY TRACK ENE ALONG NRN EDGE OF
   MORE ROBUST LLVL THETA-E.  ENHANCED AND SLIGHTLY BACKED LLVL FLOW
   ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE WILL BOOST SRH AND COUPLED WITH EVENING
   LOWERING OF THE LCL MAY RESULT IN A FEW TORNADOES.  /RACY
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2009/
   
   ...OK/KS INTO MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
   BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND
   PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY CLIMBING
   THROUGH THE 50S IN THIS REGION AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME
   BROKEN SUNSHINE IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...70-80 KT MID
   LEVEL WINDS AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NM IS
   EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION HELPING TO INITIATE NEW
   THUNDERSTORMS.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY
   OVER WEST-CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHERN KS DURING THE 20-23Z PERIOD AND
   TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.  MODEL FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
   FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA.  INCREASING LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE/LOW LCL VALUES AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION/ WILL ENHANCE
   THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN MORE PERSISTENT CELLS THIS EVENING ROUGHLY
   ALONG AN AXIS FROM OKC - TUL - SGF.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.  ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR
   EASTWARD AS SOUTH-CENTRAL IL BY TUE MORNING WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF
   LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS. /HART
   
   ..RACY/HART/SMITH.. 03/09/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z