SPC AC 190051
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across Eastern Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle into western Georgia, accompanied
by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, one or two
of which could be strong.
...01Z Outlook Update...
...Central/eastern Gulf Coast states...
A remnant mesoscale convective vortex appears likely to continue
migrating north-northeastward across northern Alabama, into southern
portions of the Cumberland Plateau/upper Tennessee Valley region
this evening. Strong to severe wind gusts have still been measured
with convection associated with this feature within the past hour or
so (including across the Tuscaloosa AL area), but convection has
been weakening, and severe wind potential seems likely to wane as
activity encounters an increasingly stable environment across the
southern Appalachians region.
Radar and lightning data have indicated a gradual recent
intensification to thunderstorm activity within the trailing
convective line, now advancing across parts of southwestern Alabama
(including the Mobile area). Ahead of this activity, and in advance
of another vigorous short wave trough digging across the southern
Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley, models suggest that
strengthening southerly low-level flow (including 50+ kt at 850) may
support a continuing northward influx of upper 60s/near 70F surface
dew points off the Gulf of Mexico, through much of southeastern
Alabama this evening. It appears that associated destabilization
may support the evolution of another organizing convective system
through 03-06Z, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging
wind gusts. Discrete supercell development in advance of this
activity could also occur, accompanied by the risk for a few
tornadoes, one or two of which could be strong in the presence of
large clockwise curved low-level hodographs.
Weak thunderstorm activity now spreading into the Red River Valley
has contributed to the downward transfer of momentum associated with
a strong mid-level jet digging to the lee of the Rockies, resulting
in scattered strong surface gusts. However, this should begin to
wane by 02-03Z, as low-level lapse rates stabilize with the loss of
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