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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 19, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Feb 19 05:28:28 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190219 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190219 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 190528

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
   OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of strong storms with marginally severe hail are possible
   from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana today. A marginal risk
   for mainly a couple of strong wind gusts, marginally severe hail,
   and a brief tornado is expected to evolve later tonight from
   Louisiana into a portion of Mississippi.

   ...Northeast Texas through Louisiana and southwest Mississippi...

   A shortwave trough now over AZ will eject northeast later today,
   reaching the central and southern Plains tonight. A warm front will
   move through the northwestern Gulf, reaching southern LA late this
   evening. With stronger forcing for ascent remaining well north of
   warm sector, only very weak surface low development is expected
   along the warm front. By 12Z Wednesday, a cold front should stretch
   from the weak low over southwest MS into southwest LA. The warm
   front will extend southeastward from the low through southern MS. 

   A southerly low-level jet will strengthen significantly from eastern
   TX into the lower MS Valley, reaching 60+ kt by mid day. Resulting
   isentropic ascent and modest destabilization will contribute to
   elevated thunderstorms early today from northeast TX into northern
   LA. Thermodynamic profiles with 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and 6-6.5 C/km
   mid-level lapse rates will be marginally supportive of some hail.
   However, primary severe threat should evolve late this period when a
   moist warm sector will move inland supporting middle-upper 60s F
   dewpoints in southern LA by 06Z and southern MS by 10Z.  A band of
   convection with embedded thunderstorms is expected to develop along
   the warm conveyor belt through the warm sector and extend northward
   above the stable surface layer north of the warm front. The warm
   sector might become sufficiently moist (upper 60s F dewpoints) to
   support surface based inflow parcels, and given the very strong
   shear profiles with 50+ kt effective bulk shear along with 200-400
   m2/s2 storm relative helicity, storms will have potential to develop
   supercell and bowing structures. There is some concern that only
   partial recovery of the boundary layer might result in the
   maintenance of at least a weak near-surface stable layer, which
   would limit low-level lapse rates and overall tornado threat. Given
   this potential limiting factor within an otherwise favorable shear
   environment, will maintain marginal risk category this update, but
   trends will continue to be monitored for a possible slight risk in
   later outlooks.

   ..Dial/Squitieri.. 02/19/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: February 19, 2019
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