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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 19, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 19 16:12:58 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190419 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190419 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic States and Carolinas today into this evening....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 191612

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1112 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

   Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
   GA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with considerable potential for producing
   damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are likely across much of
   the southern through mid Atlantic Coast region, particularly across
   the Carolinas into southern/central Virginia this afternoon and
   evening.

   ...Mid Atlantic southward to FL this afternoon/evening...
   Forecast scenario appears largely on track for this afternoon.  A
   deep midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley will pivot eastward
   toward the southern Appalachians, with associated surface
   cyclogenesis.  The deepening surface cyclone will maintain strong
   moisture transport into the Carolinas/VA in the warm sector through
   the afternoon, where pockets of surface heating will boost buoyancy
   amid boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F.  Isolated warm sector
   supercells within a moist warm advection regime will continue to be
   possible through the afternoon from VA into the Carolinas.  Farther
   west, a pre-frontal squall line has consolidated from north FL to
   near the Savannah River, and this convection will overspread the
   Carolinas/VA through this evening.  Weak-moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE
   of 500-1000 J/kg) and strong deep-layer vertical shear (effective
   bulk shear in excess of 50 kt) will continue to favor embedded
   supercell structures, while low-level moisture/shear will remain
   sufficient for occasional tornadoes.  The tornado and damaging wind
   threat will be maximized with the embedded supercells/bowing
   segments through the afternoon/evening, with the most favorable
   storm environment across the Carolinas into parts of VA.

   The warm advection regime will spread northward across VA toward
   southeastern PA, where some increase in low-level shear and weak
   destabilization will favor a northward spread of the tornado and
   damaging wind threat with the warm sector convection.  Farther
   south, the convection should be concentrated in the primary squall
   line that will cross north/central FL this afternoon, and
   potentially maintain intensity into the northern parts of south FL. 
   Damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms, since the
   primary synoptic wave (and associated low-level shear) will pass
   farther to the north.

   ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/19/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: April 19, 2019
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