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    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 19, 2019 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 19 13:02:26 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20191019 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20191019 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 191302

   Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0802 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

   Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE CAROLINA COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Nestor may produce a
   few tornadoes, along with isolated damaging wind, from the central
   Florida Peninsula to the Carolina Coast.

   ...Synopsis...
   In mid/upper levels, synoptic ridging will shift eastward across the
   remainder of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions,
   reaching central QC and New England by 12Z.  Upstream, broadly
   cyclonic flow will cover an increasing proportion of the CONUS.  A
   strong shortwave trough -- now evident in moisture-channel imagery
   over the Pacific Northwest -- will dig east-southeastward and
   develop a closed 500-mb low around the end of the period, near the
   Black Hills.  As this occurs, a corresponding surface low will
   deepen, with a cold front moving out of the central Rockies to the
   adjoining High Plains late tonight.

   Another shortwave trough will eject from the central/southern Plains
   toward the Ohio Valley and southern/central Appalachians.  As this
   occurs, Tropical Storm Nestor is forecast by NHC to move
   northeastward across GA and SC to southern NC by the end of the
   period.

   ...FL to coastal Carolinas...
   The potential for episodic supercells -- and related threat for a
   few tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts -- will continue over much
   of central/northern FL through the remaining forenoon hours.  See
   tornado watch 675 and related mesoscale discussions for the latest
   near-term guidance.

   This threat will be episodic and discontinuous spatially, and will
   exist both:
   1.  Near the diffuse inland part of the surface warm front (where
   backed flow and SRH are maximized, but instability will be on the
   marginal side due to extensive antecedent precip), and
   2.  Eastward and southward across the warm sector, where SRH is
   somewhat less (but still favorable), and lift will be maximized in
   convective/convergence bands arching through the middle-outer
   eastern semicircle of Nestor.  Isolated, discrete to semi-discrete
   supercells also may occasionally develop in this regime, as has
   occurred during prior overnight hours.  Though cloud cover and
   precip will remain extensive inland for several more hours, at
   least, this potential may be maximized anywhere that sustained
   insolation can boost CAPE and strip away whatever MLCINH remains.

   Supercell potential will wind down across FL from southwest to
   northeast this afternoon into evening, as dry slotting aloft and
   veering low-level flow with time reduce thunderstorm coverage and
   low-level shear, respectively.  Meanwhile, and continuing through
   the overnight hours, the risk will shift northeastward and spread
   slightly inland with the increasingly sheared warm sector across
   coastal sections of GA and the Carolinas.  Uncertainty lingers as to
   how far, but more inland leeway has been drawn into the marginal/2%
   and slight/5% tornado lines in deference to the strong onshore/
   inland theta-e advection probable in this scenario.  This is in
   keeping with most guidance regarding at least weak MLCAPE along and
   southeast of the warm front.  This front will continue to be a
   buoyancy-limiting boundary, with favorable shear on both sides but
   supportive CAPE along and southeast of it.

   See NHC advisories for latest tropical watches/warnings and
   track/intensity forecasts regarding Nestor.

   ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/19/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: October 19, 2019
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