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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 16, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 16 06:00:34 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180816 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180816 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 160600

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHEAST OK INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST
   AR...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will produce gusty, locally damaging winds
   across parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and
   evening. Additional strong thunderstorms are expected from the
   middle Mississippi to the lower Ohio Valleys, as well as across
   parts of central into northeast Oregon.

   ...Synopsis...

   A midlevel trough across the Upper Midwest and Mid-MO Valley will
   shift east across the Upper Great Lakes and Mid-MS/Lower-OH Valleys
   today and tonight. At the surface, a warm and moist airmass, with
   dewpoints in the mid 60s to mid 70s F will reside across eastern
   portions of the central and southern Plains into the Mid-MS and OH
   Valley regions. A somewhat diffuse and stalled frontal boundary
   across northern OK into central MO and a southward-advancing cold
   front across the Mid-MO Valley will be a focus for strong to severe
   thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Additional strong
   storms are possible in warm advection regime from southern IN/OH
   into Middle TN.

   Further west, a weak shortwave trough will move onshore the Pacific
   Northwest coast after 00z. As the western upper ridge migrates
   eastward, increasing southwesterly deep layer flow and modest
   midlevel moisture across central into northeast OR could be
   sufficient for isolated strong wind gusts with any storms that
   develop. 

   ...Portions of Central/Southern Plains Vicinity...

   Forecast confidence is fairly low this morning as convective
   evolution is uncertain and model guidance, both deterministic and
   hi-res, is rather inconsistent.  Storms may be ongoing at the
   beginning of the period across parts of eastern KS. Additionally,
   broken cloud cover may limit destabilization across parts of the
   region initially.  A stalled surface boundary was evident early this
   morning across northern AR into northeast OK. This boundary may be a
   focus of redevelopment later this afternoon. Furthermore, the
   southward-advancing cold front also will be a potential candidate
   for storm initiation and intensification.  Given that one or both of
   these boundaries may initiate storms today into this evening, it is
   likely that the slight risk will need further refinement in
   subsequent outlooks.

   Uncertainty in convective initiation location aside, increasing
   northwesterly shear on the southern periphery of the midlevel trough
   will promote organized convection in a moderately to strongly
   unstable airmass. Modest midlevel lapse rates will develop by
   afternoon as midlevel cooling overspreads the region. Shear profiles
   will be marginally favorable for supercells, but convection will
   likely quickly become linear given the presence of the
   aforementioned surface boundaries and likely downdraft-dominant
   storms in the weak lapse rate/high PW environment. One or more
   bowing segments is expected to track south/southeast across portions
   of eastern KS into OK/southern MO/northern AR. Strong, locally
   damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, though some hail is
   possible with the strongest storms. 

   ...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley...

   Several rounds of strong storms will be possible today in warm/moist
   advection ahead of the approaching trough. Midlevel southwesterly
   flow will increase to 25-35 kt and as moderate destabilization
   occurs, some strong multicell clusters are possible. Isolated strong
   wind gusts will be possible as weak low level winds and PW values
   near 2 inches favor wet microbursts.

   ...Central into Northeast OR...

   Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop during the late
   afternoon into the evening hours as the upper ridge breaks down.
   Strong mid-to-upper level southwesterly flow will result in fast
   northeasterly storm motion. Furthermore, a deeply mixed and dry
   sub-cloud layer will foster strong downburst wind potential.

   ..Leitman/Wendt.. 08/16/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: August 16, 2018
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