SPC AC 191930
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Severe storms are not expected over the U.S. today.
...20Z Outlook Update...
Some changes to the categorical (10 percent probability of) thunder
line have been made, mostly in an attempt to better account for
latest observational trends.
Across Florida, relatively warm layers aloft and weak/negligible
forcing for ascent probably will continue to minimize the risk for
thunderstorms. However, the initiation of an isolated thunderstorm
may not yet be out of the question through around 6-7 PM EDT across
parts of the central Peninsula, where boundary layer instability
(CAPE up to 1000 J/kg) has become locally maximized.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/
Large-scale trough amplification will occur through tonight over the
Great Lakes and Midwest. Prevalent cool/stable conditions will
relegate isolated thunderstorm potential to the southern tier of the
CONUS. Near a remnant baroclinic zone, the most probable area for a
few thunderstorms will be in the warm advection zone from the middle
TX coast northward, with only isolated thunderstorms expected
farther east along the Gulf Coast into northern FL. Other elevated
convection will be possible from northern Mexico into the TX Big
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