The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid Atlantic States and Carolinas today into this evening....
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SPC AC 191612
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
Severe thunderstorms with considerable potential for producing
damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are likely across much of
the southern through mid Atlantic Coast region, particularly across
the Carolinas into southern/central Virginia this afternoon and
...Mid Atlantic southward to FL this afternoon/evening...
Forecast scenario appears largely on track for this afternoon. A
deep midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley will pivot eastward
toward the southern Appalachians, with associated surface
cyclogenesis. The deepening surface cyclone will maintain strong
moisture transport into the Carolinas/VA in the warm sector through
the afternoon, where pockets of surface heating will boost buoyancy
amid boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F. Isolated warm sector
supercells within a moist warm advection regime will continue to be
possible through the afternoon from VA into the Carolinas. Farther
west, a pre-frontal squall line has consolidated from north FL to
near the Savannah River, and this convection will overspread the
Carolinas/VA through this evening. Weak-moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE
of 500-1000 J/kg) and strong deep-layer vertical shear (effective
bulk shear in excess of 50 kt) will continue to favor embedded
supercell structures, while low-level moisture/shear will remain
sufficient for occasional tornadoes. The tornado and damaging wind
threat will be maximized with the embedded supercells/bowing
segments through the afternoon/evening, with the most favorable
storm environment across the Carolinas into parts of VA.
The warm advection regime will spread northward across VA toward
southeastern PA, where some increase in low-level shear and weak
destabilization will favor a northward spread of the tornado and
damaging wind threat with the warm sector convection. Farther
south, the convection should be concentrated in the primary squall
line that will cross north/central FL this afternoon, and
potentially maintain intensity into the northern parts of south FL.
Damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms, since the
primary synoptic wave (and associated low-level shear) will pass
farther to the north.
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