Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 19, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 19 00:51:40 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190419 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190419 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 190051

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0751 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

   Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
   OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across Eastern Alabama
   and the western Florida Panhandle into western Georgia, accompanied
   by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, one or two
   of which could be strong.

   ...01Z Outlook Update...

   ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast states...
   A remnant mesoscale convective vortex appears likely to continue
   migrating north-northeastward across northern Alabama, into southern
   portions of the Cumberland Plateau/upper Tennessee Valley region
   this evening.  Strong to severe wind gusts have still been measured
   with convection associated with this feature within the past hour or
   so (including across the Tuscaloosa AL area), but convection has
   been weakening, and severe wind potential seems likely to wane as
   activity encounters an increasingly stable environment across the
   southern Appalachians region.

   Radar and lightning data have indicated a gradual recent
   intensification to thunderstorm activity within the trailing
   convective line, now advancing across parts of southwestern Alabama
   (including the Mobile area).  Ahead of this activity, and in advance
   of another vigorous short wave trough digging across the southern
   Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley, models suggest that
   strengthening southerly low-level flow (including 50+ kt at 850) may
   support a continuing northward influx of upper 60s/near 70F surface
   dew points off the Gulf of Mexico, through much of southeastern
   Alabama this evening.  It appears that associated destabilization
   may support the evolution of another organizing convective system
   through 03-06Z, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging
   wind gusts.  Discrete supercell development in advance of this
   activity could also occur, accompanied by the risk for a few
   tornadoes, one or two of which could be strong in the presence of
   large clockwise curved low-level hodographs.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Weak thunderstorm activity now spreading into the Red River Valley
   has contributed to the downward transfer of momentum associated with
   a strong mid-level jet digging to the lee of the Rockies, resulting
   in scattered strong surface gusts.  However, this should begin to
   wane by 02-03Z, as low-level lapse rates stabilize with the loss of
   daytime heating.

   ..Kerr.. 04/19/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 19, 2019
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities