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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jan 24, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 24 01:00:54 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190124 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190124 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 240100

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0700 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

   Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated damaging wind and a brief tornado remain possible over the
   northeast Gulf Coast region this evening and west-central Florida
   later tonight.

   ...Northeast Gulf Coast area into the Florida Peninsula...

   Early this evening a band of thunderstorms extends from southeast GA
   into the western FL Panhandle moving east. Organized structures
   continue to be observed within this band including bowing segments
   and meso-vortices supported by large 0-2 km hodographs and strong
   effective bulk shear. The storms are moving through a corridor of
   weak instability with MLCAPE near or below 500 J/kg. Farther east
   across south GA into northern FL the boundary layer is more stable,
   and the Tallahassee 00Z RAOB indicates a mid-level inversion around
   550 mb and very little CAPE. Though some destabilization will occur
   farther east in association with modest theta-e advection along the
   strong low-level jet this evening, the movement of the convective
   band and development of showers ahead of the line will overturn the
   atmosphere before more significant instability can develop. Thus the
   greatest severe potential should remain in the slight risk area from
   southeast AL, the FL Panhandle into extreme southwest GA through mid
   evening, followed by a weakening trend. Nevertheless, at least some
   threat for mainly isolated damaging wind is expected to persist into
   the overnight as far east as the FL Peninsula.

   ..Dial.. 01/24/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: January 24, 2019
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