SPC AC 150058
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN MT AND
ALSO FOR CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI...
Severe thunderstorms capable damaging wind and some hail will remain
possible this evening across eastern Montana and also from central
Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. A tornado or two will be
possible in association with Tropical Cyclone Barry across the Lower
Mississippi Valley region into Tuesday morning.
...Eastern MT into Western ND...
Multiple clusters of convection will move into eastern MT this
evening, with a continued threat for severe wind gusts and perhaps
some hail. Increasing CINH downstream is expected to temper the
severe threat overnight into ND, though one or two clusters may
persist with an isolated wind threat into western ND. See MCD 1472
for more information.
...Central MN into Northwest WI...
A loosely organized thunderstorm cluster may persist for awhile this
evening as it moves from central MN into northwest WI, within an
environment characterized by moderate instability and effective
shear of 25-35 kt. The primary threat with this cluster should be
locally damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Some redevelopment
is possible later tonight north of the remnant outflow across
central MN as a modest low-level jet impinges on the region, which
would pose a threat of isolated hail and wind. See MCD 1473 for more
...Lower MS Valley - TC Barry...
As the remnant circulation of TC Barry moves northward into AR,
relatively strong low-level wind fields will remain in place across
much of MS. While convection has remained weak and disorganized for
much of the day, there is some potential for more organized rain
bands to develop later tonight, which would pose a threat of a
tornado or two overnight.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z