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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 15, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 15 00:58:20 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190715 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190715 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 150058

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0758 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

   Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN MT AND
   ALSO FOR CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable damaging wind and some hail will remain
   possible this evening across eastern Montana and also from central
   Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. A tornado or two will be
   possible in association with Tropical Cyclone Barry across the Lower
   Mississippi Valley region into Tuesday morning.

   ...Eastern MT into Western ND...
   Multiple clusters of convection will move into eastern MT this
   evening, with a continued threat for severe wind gusts and perhaps
   some hail. Increasing CINH downstream is expected to temper the
   severe threat overnight into ND, though one or two clusters may
   persist with an isolated wind threat into western ND. See MCD 1472
   for more information. 

   ...Central MN into Northwest WI...
   A loosely organized thunderstorm cluster may persist for awhile this
   evening as it moves from central MN into northwest WI, within an
   environment characterized by moderate instability and effective
   shear of 25-35 kt. The primary threat with this cluster should be
   locally damaging wind and marginally severe hail. Some redevelopment
   is possible later tonight north of the remnant outflow across
   central MN as a modest low-level jet impinges on the region, which
   would pose a threat of isolated hail and wind. See MCD 1473 for more
   information. 

   ...Lower MS Valley - TC Barry...
   As the remnant circulation of TC Barry moves northward into AR,
   relatively strong low-level wind fields will remain in place across
   much of MS. While convection has remained weak and disorganized for
   much of the day, there is some potential for more organized rain
   bands to develop later tonight, which would pose a threat of a
   tornado or two overnight.

   ..Dean.. 07/15/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: July 15, 2019
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