Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
SPC AC 170039
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO...
Strong to severe storms will continue to pose a damaging wind threat
across parts of Kansas and Missouri this evening. The severe threat
should diminish after midnight.
...South/Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity...
Earlier clusters of storms from northeast OK into eastern KS have
conglomerated across southeast KS, with additional development
occurring near the I-70 corridor in western MO along secondary
surface boundary. Some hi-res guidance suggests that enough of a
cold pool may develop, in conjunction with modest deep layer shear
overspreading the region, to maintain a forward propagating line of
storms into southeast MO. Damaging winds will be the main concern
with these storms. However, some marginal hail is possible in
strongest cores given steep midlevel lapse rates evident on the 00z
RAOB from SGF. Severe threat should generally diminish after about
06z as the boundary layer continues to stabilize and the wind threat
Occasional storms will continue through the nighttime hours further
east toward the mid-MS and lower OH Valleys. A weak surface low over
east-central IA/northwest IL has been responsible for some strong
storms in that vicinity and this activity will continue
east/southeast through the end of the period.
Scattered thunderstorms will continue across parts of northeast OR
the next few hours. Steep low level lapse rates and a very dry
sub-cloud layer will promote strong downburst winds with this
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z