Dec 8, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Dec 8 00:40:35 UTC 2019 (20191208 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20191208 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20191208 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 14,156 2,808,382 Sacramento, CA...Santa Rosa, CA...Roseville, CA...Fairfield, CA...Vacaville, CA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20191208 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 14,258 3,044,290 Sacramento, CA...Santa Rosa, CA...Roseville, CA...Fairfield, CA...Vacaville, CA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20191208 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20191208 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 080040

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0640 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2019

   Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A marginal tornado threat continues early this evening across
   portions of northern California.

   ...01z Update...

   Upper trough is gradually progressing toward the CA coast. One
   notable upper vort max has translated inland near the CA/OR coast
   and this appears to have contributed to some veering in the
   low-level flow near the coast. However, farther inland,
   boundary-layer winds remain more southerly in the Sacramento Valley
   where a few longer-lived updrafts persist. While vertical shear
   remains supportive of supercells, buoyancy is a bit scant for strong
   updrafts. Will maintain 2% tornado probs for a brief weak tornado
   the next few hours, but overall threat appears to be rather low and
   likely diminishing after 03z.

   ..Darrow.. 12/08/2019

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z