Aug 17, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 17 00:39:18 UTC 2018 (20180817 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180817 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180817 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 35,592 2,078,608 Wichita, KS...Springfield, MO...Joplin, MO...Emporia, KS...Belton, MO...
MARGINAL 227,590 22,539,195 Indianapolis, IN...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Cincinnati, OH...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180817 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 26,774 1,531,517 Springfield, MO...Joplin, MO...Belton, MO...Sedalia, MO...Pittsburg, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180817 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 35,293 2,196,868 Wichita, KS...Springfield, MO...Joplin, MO...Emporia, KS...Belton, MO...
5 % 229,566 22,768,457 Indianapolis, IN...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180817 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 26,179 1,559,477 Wichita, KS...Springfield, MO...Joplin, MO...Emporia, KS...Belton, MO...
5 % 152,067 13,237,692 Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
   SPC AC 170039

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0739 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

   Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms will continue to pose a damaging wind threat
   across parts of Kansas and Missouri this evening. The severe threat
   should diminish after midnight.

   ...South/Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity...

   Earlier clusters of storms from northeast OK into eastern KS have
   conglomerated across southeast KS, with additional development
   occurring near the I-70 corridor in western MO along secondary
   surface boundary. Some hi-res guidance suggests that enough of a
   cold pool may develop, in conjunction with modest deep layer shear
   overspreading the region, to maintain a forward propagating line of
   storms into southeast MO. Damaging winds will be the main concern
   with these storms. However, some marginal hail is possible in
   strongest cores given steep midlevel lapse rates evident on the 00z
   RAOB from SGF.  Severe threat should generally diminish after about
   06z as the boundary layer continues to stabilize and the wind threat
   diminishes.

   Occasional storms will continue through the nighttime hours further
   east toward the mid-MS and lower OH Valleys. A weak surface low over
   east-central IA/northwest IL has been responsible for some strong
   storms in that vicinity and this activity will continue
   east/southeast through the end of the period. 

   ...Oregon...

   Scattered thunderstorms will continue across parts of northeast OR
   the next few hours.  Steep low level lapse rates and a very dry
   sub-cloud layer will promote strong downburst winds with this
   convection.

   ..Leitman.. 08/17/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z