Dec 18, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Dec 18 00:48:00 UTC 2018 (20181218 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20181218 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181218 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20181218 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20181218 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20181218 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 180048

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0648 PM CST Mon Dec 17 2018

   Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
   States through tonight.

   ...Discussion...
   Quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the Lower 48
   tonight.  Dry and/or stable low-level airmasses over the contiguous
   states will be hostile to thunderstorms except for a low chance for
   a few lightning flashes with weak convection late tonight near the
   WA coast, and near the greater El Paso area, in association with
   upper disturbances.

   ..Smith.. 12/18/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z