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    Day 2 Outlook >
Nov 14, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 14 05:26:26 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20191114 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20191114 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 140526

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1126 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are expected across Florida into coastal
   portions of the Carolinas.

   ...Southeastern US...

   Late-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
   trough over northern Mexico. This feature is expected to be shunted
   east across the northern Gulf as mid-level heights fall over the
   Mid-South ahead of a digging trough. In response to this feature,
   weak surface low should develop over the eastern Gulf Basin then
   track toward the FL coast after 15/06z. Initial boundary-layer
   conditions are not that moist/buoyant across the Peninsula. The
   modified warm sector that will be drawn north ahead of the surface
   low should struggle to generate appreciable instability prior to
   frontal passage. Even so, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
   develop off the FL Gulf coast where instability will be much more
   supportive of robust updrafts. This convection will develop within
   an increasingly sheared environment ahead of the aforementioned
   short wave. Some organization is possible over the warmer Gulf
   waters and this activity will spread toward the FL coast after
   sunset. However, convection should weaken due to less buoyant air
   mass over land. Current thinking is the threat for severe wind gusts
   will be minimized inland, though gusty winds could be noted with
   storms near the coast. Toward sunrise, surface low should reorganize
   off the northeast FL coast, and deep convection should focus along a
   southwest-northeast oriented warm front off the Carolinas coast.

   ..Darrow/Cook.. 11/14/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: November 14, 2019
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