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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 18, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 18 05:15:15 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190918 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190918 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 180515

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper
   Midwest this afternoon and evening, but the risk for organized
   severe weather appears low.

   ...Upper Midwest Vicinity...

   An amplified upper ridge will stretch from the southern Plains to
   the Great Lakes today.  A compact shortwave trough over eastern
   ND/northwest MN early this morning will quickly shift northeast
   across the international border. Thunderstorms associated with this
   wave will diminish through the morning hours. South/southwesterly
   flow will maintain mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints across the mid-MO
   Valley into the upper MS Valley ahead of a southeastward-advancing
   cold front. Thunderstorms will likely redevelop along the front
   during the late afternoon and into the evening/overnight hours as a
   southwesterly low level jet increases. Moderate to strong
   instability is expected to develop as temperatures warm into the
   80s, but upper forcing will be modest at best as the upper shortwave
   trough continues to lift northeast into Ontario after 18z.
   Furthermore, effective shear will likewise remain modest, around
   20-25 kt, limiting organized thunderstorm activity. A couple of
   strong storms could produce gusty winds, but overall severe threat
   appears too limited to include probabilities. 

   ...TX/LA...

   Tropical Depression Imelda would continue to drift north and east in
   the vicinity of east Texas and the Sabine Valley. Heavy rain will
   continue to be the main concern with this system. Low level shear
   may be sufficient for occasional, weakly rotating cells across far
   southeast TX into far southwest LA. However, conditions are expected
   to remain too marginal for inclusion of tornado probabilities.

   ..Leitman/Bentley.. 09/18/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: September 18, 2019
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