Nov 22, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 22 05:16:53 UTC 2018 (20181122 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20181122 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181122 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20181122 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20181122 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20181122 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 220516

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 PM CST Wed Nov 21 2018

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the east coast of Florida,
   in the Four Corners region and along the Pacific Northwest coast
   today.  Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

   An upper-level ridge will move eastward across the north-central
   United States today as an upper-level trough moves across the Gulf
   of Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the
   trough along the east coast of Florida this afternoon. Isolated
   thunderstorms will also be possible ahead of an upper-level trough
   from far southeast Nevada eastward into the Four Corners. A few
   lightning strikes may also occur along the Pacific Northwest coast
   as an upper-level trough moves inland this afternoon. Instability
   will be too weak across the CONUS for severe thunderstorm
   development today or tonight.

   ..Broyles/Nauslar.. 11/22/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z