Jan 19, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 19 05:58:55 UTC 2019 (20190119 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190119 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190119 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 114,298 10,565,610 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...
MARGINAL 117,377 18,450,622 Atlanta, GA...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Huntsville, AL...Chattanooga, TN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20190119 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 105,577 8,878,907 Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...
2 % 111,047 16,687,470 New Orleans, LA...Atlanta, GA...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Baton Rouge, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20190119 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 114,239 10,565,056 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...
5 % 117,406 18,450,318 Atlanta, GA...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Huntsville, AL...Chattanooga, TN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20190119 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 190558

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1158 PM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some of which could be severe,
   are expected across parts of the Gulf Coast states today and
   tonight. Damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes should be the
   main threats.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong upper trough with attendant 50-80+ kt mid-level jet
   rounding its base will overspread the Southeast today. 45-55 kt
   south-southwesterly low-level jet will likewise translate eastward
   over the surface warm sector across MS/AL/GA and the western FL
   Panhandle through this evening. At the surface, an area of low
   pressure initially over the Mid-South will develop eastward across
   the TN Valley today, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic by the end
   of the period. A cold front extending southward from this low will
   sweep quickly eastward across the Southeast, with the strong to
   severe thunderstorm threat mainly confined along/near the front.

   ...Southeast...
   Numerous thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the
   period along the cold front extending from near Memphis, TN
   southward generally along the MS River to southern LA. Although
   low-level moisture return will remain limited ahead of the front,
   low 60s surface dewpoints combined with modest daytime heating and
   gradually cooling mid-level temperatures should support weak
   instability across the warm sector for much of central/eastern MS,
   AL, western GA, and the western FL Panhandle through the day. A
   gradual increase in convective intensity seems probable as the line
   of thunderstorms moves eastward into AL by early afternoon, and
   40-60 kt of effective bulk shear will easily support updraft
   organization within the line. A few embedded supercells cannot be
   ruled out, although the linear nature of the cold front suggests a
   QLCS will be the dominant storm mode. Isolated strong to damaging
   winds will likely be the main threat, but enlarged low-level
   hodographs owing to a strongly strengthening/veering wind profile in
   the 0-3 km layer will also support a threat for isolated tornadoes.
   A slow decrease in intensity should occur from late evening into the
   overnight as this convection eventually outpaces the modest
   low-level moisture return while moving across central/eastern GA and
   the FL Peninsula.

   ...Eastern NC...
   As the upper trough approaches the East Coast, the surface warm
   sector will make some attempt to advance northward across coastal
   portions of NC early Sunday morning as the low-level jet strengthens
   over this region. However, the potential for surface-based
   thunderstorms over land appears too uncertain/conditional to include
   any severe probabilities at this time.

   ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/19/2019

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z