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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 17, 2019 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 17 12:47:14 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190917 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190917 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 171247

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0747 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

   Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND TONIGHT FOR
   MN AND VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms with damaging winds and large hail are expected
   across the northern high Plains area this afternoon/evening, and
   overnight across Minnesota and vicinity.

   ...Northern High Plains this afternoon/evening...
   A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin will eject
   northeastward to ND tonight.  Surface cyclogenesis is expected near
   the northwest ND/northeast MT/SK border by this evening, and this
   cyclone will move northeastward into southern MB overnight.  Strong
   forcing for ascent will accompany the cyclone (within the left-exit
   region of the mid-upper jet), but lingering convective inhibition
   and only modest low-level moisture/buoyancy will tend to limit storm
   coverage/intensity.  Still, there will be enough downdraft and
   momentum transfer potential to support at least isolated
   severe/damaging winds from eastern WY/western SD this afternoon into
   western ND this evening.

   ...MN area today into tonight...
   A cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across central
   MN, in a zone of focused low-level warm advection associated with a
   compact midlevel shortwave trough.  This zone of ascent will spread
   northeastward toward the MN Arrowhead by early afternoon.  Though
   the convection will be slightly elevated this morning, there will be
   some potential for a strong storm or two with hail by early
   afternoon along the southern flank of the convective cluster.  There
   will be no clear focus for additional thunderstorm development this
   afternoon across MN, in the wake of the ejecting shortwave trough.

   East of the surface cold front moving across the Dakotas tonight, a
   low-level jet will strengthen to 50 kt from NE to MN.  This will
   occur along the low-level moist axis, where moderate buoyancy will
   persist well into the overnight hours.  A pre-frontal, mixed-mode
   band of slightly elevated storms is expected to form tonight near
   the SD/MN border and spread northeastward and eastward overnight. 
   The increasing low-level flow and MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg will support
   a threat for at least isolated damaging winds and marginally severe
   hail.  

   ...TX coastal plain through early Wednesday...
   A weak tropical low south of Matagorda will drift northward to the
   Fort Bend/western Harris County area by 12z Wednesday.  There is
   some potential for strengthening with this system prior to moving
   inland, though wind fields are not expected to become strong enough
   to support a threat for supercells/tornadoes.  Otherwise, training
   convection and very heavy rainfall will be the main concern.

   ..Thompson/Kerr.. 09/17/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: September 17, 2019
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