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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 17, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 17 16:27:32 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190917 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190917 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 171627

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1127 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

   Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms are possible across the northern High Plains
   during the late afternoon and evening, and overnight in parts of the
   Upper Midwest.

   ...Northern High Plains...
   A vigorous shortwave trough over southeast ID will eject
   northeastward to ND tonight. Surface cyclone near the ND/MT/SK
   border area will slowly move east into southern MB. Strong forcing
   for ascent will accompany the shortwave trough within the left-exit
   region of the mid-upper jet, but lingering convective inhibition and
   meager MLCAPE will tend to limit storm coverage/intensity. Still,
   there will be enough downdraft and momentum transfer potential to
   support isolated severe wind gusts from eastern WY/western SD during
   the late afternoon into western ND this evening. 

   ...Upper Midwest...
   East of the surface cold front moving across the Dakotas tonight, a
   low-level jet will strengthen to 50-60 kt from NE to MN. This will
   occur along the low-level moist axis, where moderate buoyancy will
   persist well into the overnight hours. One or more pre-frontal
   convective clusters are expected to form within the warm conveyor
   near the SD/MN/IA/NE border area and spread northeast. Deep-layer
   flow will be decreasing with height, suggesting that storms will
   struggle to organize and the hail threat should be limited. However,
   an enlarged low-level hodograph may compensate for pronounced MLCIN
   and support a risk of locally damaging wind.

   ...Upper TX Coast...
   A weak tropical low east of Matagorda Bay will drift northward
   towards Houston through early Wednesday. There is some potential for
   strengthening with this system prior to moving inland, though wind
   fields are not expected to become strong enough to support a threat
   for supercells/tornadoes. Otherwise, training convection yielding
   very heavy rainfall will be the main concern.

   ..Grams/Broyles.. 09/17/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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Page last modified: September 17, 2019
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