Oct 19, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 19 19:57:28 UTC 2019 (20191019 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20191019 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20191019 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 18,109 2,172,799 Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...North Charleston, SC...Jacksonville, NC...Mount Pleasant, SC...
MARGINAL 79,721 15,443,183 Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Cape Coral, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20191019 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 18,314 2,182,414 Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...North Charleston, SC...Jacksonville, NC...Mount Pleasant, SC...
2 % 23,950 3,686,289 Jacksonville, FL...Savannah, GA...Palm Bay, FL...Melbourne, FL...Daytona Beach, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20191019 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 97,416 17,577,320 Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Cape Coral, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20191019 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 191957

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

   Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for isolated tornadoes will increase tonight over parts of
   the coastal Carolinas.

   ...FL...
   The remnant circulation of Nester is currently over the FL
   Panhandle.  Low-level winds are slowly veering across the FL
   Peninsula, resulting in slowing decreasing vertical shear and
   convergence.  While scattered showers and an occasional thunderstorm
   with gusty winds remains possible across this region for the next
   several hours, this activity should remain rather shallow and
   disorganized.

   ...Carolinas...
   As the aforementioned low tracks northeastward, the potential for a
   few supercells and associated risk of a tornado or two is expected
   to develop over portions of SC/NC - mainly after 03z tonight.

   ..Hart.. 10/19/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/

   ...Florida to coastal Carolinas...
   The extratropical remnants of Nestor will continue to steadily
   spread northeastward over northern Florida/southern Georgia today. A
   severe threat, in the form of locally damaging winds and/or a
   tornado, will persist the first part of the afternoon mainly across
   the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula. Low-level winds will
   otherwise continue to veer/weaken across the Florida Peninsula with
   convection tending to shift offshore to the open Atlantic Waters.

   While the overall system/surface low will tend to weaken with time,
   a moist influx off the Atlantic in conjunction with the persistence
   of a strong low-level wind field could lead to some increase in
   supercell potential across coastal portions of Georgia/South
   Carolina later today and this evening, and coastal North Carolina
   late tonight. While deep-layer/effective shear will be weak owing to
   an expected flow weakness above 2 km AGL, some tornado and damaging
   wind risk may exist in these areas later this afternoon, and more so
   tonight.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z