Nov 29, 2020 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 29 19:36:23 UTC 2020 (20201129 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20201129 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20201129 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 56,145 4,373,749 Tallahassee, FL...Wilmington, NC...Albany, GA...Greenville, NC...Jacksonville, NC...
MARGINAL 77,058 10,924,128 Jacksonville, FL...New Orleans, LA...Raleigh, NC...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20201129 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 55,757 4,341,211 Tallahassee, FL...Wilmington, NC...Albany, GA...Greenville, NC...Jacksonville, NC...
2 % 77,721 10,837,759 Jacksonville, FL...New Orleans, LA...Raleigh, NC...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20201129 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 32,024 2,227,782 Tallahassee, FL...Dothan, AL...Pensacola, FL...Valdosta, GA...Panama City, FL...
5 % 101,776 12,964,767 Jacksonville, FL...New Orleans, LA...Raleigh, NC...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20201129 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 291936

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

   Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LA
   INTO SOUTHWEST GA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
   CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms may produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts
   through tonight, from parts of the central Gulf Coast to the eastern
   Carolinas.

   ...20z Update...

   The only changes with the 20z update were to trim severe and general
   thunderstorm probabilities across southwest MS into parts of
   southeast LA. These changes are based on the current position of the
   surface cold front across southeast MS to near Lake Pontchartrain
   and southeast from there into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
   Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track. At least a narrow
   window of opportunity will exist this evening into tonight across
   the FL Panhandle into southwest GA for a few damaging gusts and
   possibly a tornado or two. Later tonight into early Monday morning,
   the severe threat will increase toward the eastern Carolinas ahead
   of the cold front. A couple of tornadoes may accompany these storms
   overnight.

   ..Leitman.. 11/29/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020/

   ...LA to GA/FL...
   Morning water vapor loop shows a significant shortwave trough moving
   across OK/AR, with an associated 80kt mid-level jet max rotating
   into LA/MS.  This feature is resulting in cyclogenesis off the LA
   coast, with a warm front extending eastward from the low roughly
   along the Gulf coast of MS/AL/FL.  The surface low and warm front
   will move slightly inland this afternoon and evening, with
   moist/unstable air overspreading the coastal counties of this
   region.  Forecast soundings show ample low-level and deep-layer
   shear, favorable for a few supercells and the risk of isolated
   tornadoes or damaging wind gusts.  Activity will move into southwest
   GA after dark, where a slightly more stable environment should
   result in a weakening trend of the storms.

   ...Eastern NC...
   As the aforementioned upper system moves eastward, significant
   intensification of the southerly low-level jet is forecast to occur
   over the Carolinas/VA.  This will result in a corridor of rapid
   destabilization after midnight over parts of eastern NC as dewpoints
   rise into the mid/upper 60s.  Vertical shear will be quite strong,
   and 12z CAM solutions suggest a few rotating storms may develop. 
   There is a risk of a few tornadoes overnight in this region.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z