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Apr 25, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 25 05:47:49 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190425 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190425 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 250547

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with a marginal wind damage threat are
   expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula, the Carolinas and
   Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   An upper-level trough will move across the eastern Gulf Coast States
   on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across
   Georgia and the Florida Panhandle during the morning, and onto the
   Florida Peninsula during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface
   dewpoints in the mid 60s F will result in destabilization across
   much of the Florida Peninsula by late morning. In spite of the moist
   airmass, deep-layer shear is forecast to be on the weak side for
   organized convection. NAM forecast soundings suggest the environment
   will support marginally severe multicells. As low-level lapse rates
   become steep ahead of the front during the early afternoon, a few
   isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible.

   ...Carolinas/Mid Atlantic...
   An upper-level trough will move eastward into the lower Great Lakes
   and central Appalachian Mountains on Friday. At the surface, a cold
   front will advance eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
   Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60 to 65 F range should
   result in some destabilization by midday. Thunderstorms are expected
   to develop along the front and move eastward, approaching the
   Atlantic coast during the afternoon. Although instability is
   forecast to remain weak, moderate deep-layer shear and steep
   low-level lapse rates, evident on NAM forecast soundings, may
   support a marginal wind damage threat with the stronger multicell
   line segments. The threat should end by early evening as the cold
   front moves offshore.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Broyles.. 04/25/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: April 25, 2019
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