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May 26, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 26 06:00:39 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190526 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190526 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 260600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms are possible from Nebraska eastward to the
   Midwest.  Isolated severe storms are possible from northern Kansas
   southward through west Texas.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level low centered near the Lower Colorado River Valley at the
   beginning of D2/Monday will migrate eastward across the central
   Rockies through the forecast period, with a belt of enhanced flow
   rounding the base of this trough and entering the High Plains late. 
   Another shortwave trough will migrate from Iowa early in the period
   to Michigan by evening.  At the surface, a low will organize in
   eastern Colorado throughout the period, while a warm front extends
   across central Nebraska northeastward to southern Wisconsin.  A
   buoyant airmass will reside south of this boundary throughout the
   forecast period.

   ...Eastern Nebraska eastward through the Midwest...
   Convection should be ongoing across NE/IA portions of the discussion
   area in response to a weak shortwave trough moving eastward through
   the region amidst a buoyant airmass characterized by low 60s F
   dewpoints south of a warm front.  Both convective evolution and
   eventual position of the warm front remain unclear, although the
   presence of the eastward-moving wave, surface heating/moderate
   buoyancy along and south of the warm front, and weak inhibition
   supports the notion of scattered convection in northern Illinois and
   vicinity during the afternoon, shifting east/southeast into Indiana
   and Ohio overnight.  Southwesterly low-level flow veering and
   strengthening to westerly with height will support organized
   convection with updraft rotation and a threat for hail, damaging
   wind gusts and a few tornadoes. 

   ...Southeastern Wyoming into western Nebraska...
   Easterly/upslope flow will exist just northeast of the organizing
   surface low, with low 50s F dewpoints and cool mid-level
   temperatures supporting around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.  The flow will veer
   and strengthen to southerly aloft, supporting convection with
   updraft rotation.  Hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornadoes will
   be possible with this activity.  These storms will migrate eastward
   along the warm front reach central Nebraska late in the period, with
   a continued threat for severe hail and wind given continued cooling
   aloft.

   ...Southern Nebraska southward through west Texas...
   Though convergence along the dryline will be appreciable, models
   only depict isolated convection from evening onward - probably owing
   to subsidence aloft in the wake of the morning shortwave and in
   advance of the approaching cutoff low.  Forcing/cooling aloft will
   arrive late in the period, which generally suggests that any
   convection that can materialize will be slightly elevated atop a
   cooling boundary layer.  Large hail will be the most likely threat
   with this activity, though if a storm can develop along the dryline
   earlier than currently anticipated, all modes of severe will be
   possible.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

   ..Cook.. 05/26/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: May 26, 2019
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