SPC AC 250547
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
Thunderstorms associated with a marginal wind damage threat are
expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula, the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
An upper-level trough will move across the eastern Gulf Coast States
on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across
Georgia and the Florida Panhandle during the morning, and onto the
Florida Peninsula during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints in the mid 60s F will result in destabilization across
much of the Florida Peninsula by late morning. In spite of the moist
airmass, deep-layer shear is forecast to be on the weak side for
organized convection. NAM forecast soundings suggest the environment
will support marginally severe multicells. As low-level lapse rates
become steep ahead of the front during the early afternoon, a few
isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible.
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the lower Great Lakes
and central Appalachian Mountains on Friday. At the surface, a cold
front will advance eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60 to 65 F range should
result in some destabilization by midday. Thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the front and move eastward, approaching the
Atlantic coast during the afternoon. Although instability is
forecast to remain weak, moderate deep-layer shear and steep
low-level lapse rates, evident on NAM forecast soundings, may
support a marginal wind damage threat with the stronger multicell
line segments. The threat should end by early evening as the cold
front moves offshore.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: 5% - Marginal
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z