SPC AC 260600
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST...
Strong to severe storms are possible from Nebraska eastward to the
Midwest. Isolated severe storms are possible from northern Kansas
southward through west Texas.
A mid-level low centered near the Lower Colorado River Valley at the
beginning of D2/Monday will migrate eastward across the central
Rockies through the forecast period, with a belt of enhanced flow
rounding the base of this trough and entering the High Plains late.
Another shortwave trough will migrate from Iowa early in the period
to Michigan by evening. At the surface, a low will organize in
eastern Colorado throughout the period, while a warm front extends
across central Nebraska northeastward to southern Wisconsin. A
buoyant airmass will reside south of this boundary throughout the
...Eastern Nebraska eastward through the Midwest...
Convection should be ongoing across NE/IA portions of the discussion
area in response to a weak shortwave trough moving eastward through
the region amidst a buoyant airmass characterized by low 60s F
dewpoints south of a warm front. Both convective evolution and
eventual position of the warm front remain unclear, although the
presence of the eastward-moving wave, surface heating/moderate
buoyancy along and south of the warm front, and weak inhibition
supports the notion of scattered convection in northern Illinois and
vicinity during the afternoon, shifting east/southeast into Indiana
and Ohio overnight. Southwesterly low-level flow veering and
strengthening to westerly with height will support organized
convection with updraft rotation and a threat for hail, damaging
wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
...Southeastern Wyoming into western Nebraska...
Easterly/upslope flow will exist just northeast of the organizing
surface low, with low 50s F dewpoints and cool mid-level
temperatures supporting around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. The flow will veer
and strengthen to southerly aloft, supporting convection with
updraft rotation. Hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornadoes will
be possible with this activity. These storms will migrate eastward
along the warm front reach central Nebraska late in the period, with
a continued threat for severe hail and wind given continued cooling
...Southern Nebraska southward through west Texas...
Though convergence along the dryline will be appreciable, models
only depict isolated convection from evening onward - probably owing
to subsidence aloft in the wake of the morning shortwave and in
advance of the approaching cutoff low. Forcing/cooling aloft will
arrive late in the period, which generally suggests that any
convection that can materialize will be slightly elevated atop a
cooling boundary layer. Large hail will be the most likely threat
with this activity, though if a storm can develop along the dryline
earlier than currently anticipated, all modes of severe will be
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 5% - Slight
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 15% - Slight
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z