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Sep 22, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 22 05:28:23 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190922 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190922 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 220528

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered storms, some severe with damaging wind and hail, are
   expected over much of Arizona Monday.

   ...Arizona...
   An upper low will drop south from NV toward the lower Colorado River
   Valley, providing large-scale lift as well as increasing shear
   profiles. At the surface, southern winds will persist over southeast
   CA into southern AZ ahead of the developing cold front. Heating as
   well as gulf moisture with 60s F dewpoints will result in MLCAPE on
   the order of 1000-1500 J/kg with little if any capping. Severe
   storms, including damaging wind gusts and hail, will develop during
   the afternoon over southern and central AZ, and possibly extreme
   eastern CA and southern NV where heating will be maximized.

   Low-level winds will be generally weak, but beneath increasing
   southwesterlies aloft. This will elongate hodographs, which will be
   mainly straight-line, supporting splitting cells capable of hail.
   Some cells may bow and produce damaging winds as well. Sporadic
   strong to severe storms will be possible late into the night over
   southern AZ as the air mass remains unstable prior to the cold front
   passage.

   ...Northeastern states...
   A potent shortwave trough will move rapidly east from the Great
   Lakes into the Northeast, providing increasing deep-layer shear as
   well as lift. At the surface, a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints
   will spread northward ahead of a cold front which will move across
   NY and PA during the day, and across New England overnight. Despite
   increasing wind fields, instability is forecast to be weak,
   averaging just a few hundred J/kg, and with poor deep-layer lapse
   rates. This should result in primarily non-severe storms along the
   cold front, capable of a few strong wind gusts as low-level mean
   winds average around 35 kt.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

   ..Jewell.. 09/22/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 22, 2019
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