Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Jul 16, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 16 05:13:37 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190716 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190716 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 160513

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1213 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
   upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong storms may also be noted
   across parts of the Plains and over portions of the northeastern US.

   ...Upper MS Valley...

   Seasonally strong mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to eject
   across the northern inter-mountain region during the day1 period
   which should aid organized convection across the northern High
   Plains Tuesday night. Latest guidance suggests an MCS may evolve
   ahead of this feature late day1 that should propagate across central
   SD by sunrise Wednesday. While late-evening guidance differs a bit
   regarding the timing of the affiliated short wave, there is reason
   to believe the Plains MCS may continue east into southern MN as LLJ
   shifts downstream ahead of the disturbance. It's not entirely clear
   how much convection, if any, will root into the boundary layer where
   more buoyant parcels will exist. However a strong signal does exist
   for organized elevated convection propagating east across southern
   MN along the nose of aforementioned LLJ. Wind and some hail are the
   primary threats.

   ...Plains...

   Farther southwest along surface boundary, strong low-level heating
   will contribute to parcels reaching their convective temperatures
   and isolated high-based convection should evolve across eastern NE
   into western KS. This activity could produce isolated severe wind
   gusts as sub-cloud temp/dew point spreads may approach 40F at peak
   heating.

   Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may also develop across eastern
   WY within post-frontal easterly flow regime. Forecast soundings
   suggest a few supercells may form after 22z and this activity should
   spread toward the Black Hills after sunset.

   Isolated strong storms may also develop across eastern ND into
   northwest MN if sufficient instability develops in the wake of
   early-MCS that tracks across SD into southern MN. Large-scale
   forcing for ascent will be stronger across this region as exit
   region of 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across southeast
   ND into northwest MN during the early evening hours.

   ...Delmarva to southern New England...

   Remnants of Barry are forecast to eject across the OH Valley into
   western NY/PA by 18z. Somewhat stronger mid-level flow will evolve
   ahead of this feature along a corridor into southern New England
   where boundary-layer heating is expected to be maximized. Forecast
   soundings exhibit mean cloud-layer flow on the order of 25kt. With
   surface temperatures expected to rise into the 90s, steepening
   surface-3km lapse rates should enhance downdraft potential with
   convection across this region.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Darrow.. 07/16/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 16, 2019
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities