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Aug 18, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 18 17:27:45 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180818 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180818 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 181727

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA
   AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms will be possible mainly Sunday afternoon and
   evening over parts of the southern Great Plains, Ozarks, and
   Ark-La-Tex region.

   ...Synopsis...
   With stronger flow aloft confined to Canada Sunday, a relatively
   weaker flow regime will prevail across the CONUS.  Within this flow
   field however, three areas of troughing are evident.  Two -- one
   departing the East and a second moving into/across the Pacific
   Northwest -- will contribute to areas of convection, but very little
   severe risk.  

   However, limited/low-end severe risk may accompany the third feature
   -- a trough crossing the Great Plains region.  This trough will
   contribute to weak surface cyclogenesis -- with a weak low center
   initially in the vicinity of Oklahoma shifting slowly northeast
   across southeast Kansas and eventually into western Missouri.  As
   this low develops, a cool front will progress southward across
   Oklahoma and the High Plains of Texas, while a warm front shifts
   north across the Mid-Mississippi/Tennessee/lower Ohio Valleys later
   in the period.

   Elsewhere, a trailing cold front -- associated with an upper trough
   crossing central Canada -- is expected to move across the northern
   Plains/upper Mississippi Valley region through the period, with
   showers and a few thunderstorms likely accompanying.

   ...Oklahoma/north Texas east through Arkansas and the Ozarks...
   An ongoing -- though largely disorganized -- cluster of
   thunderstorms is forecast to be crossing the Great Plains region at
   the start of the period, ahead of the advancing upper trough.  While
   small hail and gusty winds may be possible with a few of the
   stronger early-day updrafts -- particularly across the Oklahoma
   vicinity -- storms should remain largely sub-severe.

   Though weak cyclogenesis will likely occur through the day,
   lingering clouds/convection will result largely in weak lapse rates
   as well as some hindrance with respect to daytime heating. 
   Therefore, although a belt of enhanced (40 kt) westerly mid-level
   flow will spread across this region, convective intensity -- and
   thus severe risk -- should remain limited.  Some redevelopment of
   storms near the leading edge of the remnant convection/possible MCV
   may occur over eastern Oklahoma and into the Ozarks vicinity, while
   some heating in the wake of the convection may allow a few cells to
   develop over southern Kansas and northern/western Oklahoma.  While
   gusty winds and marginal hail may occur with a few stronger
   updrafts, overall risk appears likely to remain quite limited
   through the period.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Goss.. 08/18/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: August 18, 2018
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