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Sep 18, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 18 05:33:34 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190918 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190918 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 180533

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1233 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
   NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   At least isolated storms producing large hail are possible Thursday
   evening and overnight across the northern High Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough will swing east across the Great Basin, with
   increasingly meridional upper-level winds into WY and MT. Ahead of
   this trough, height rises will occur over the northern Plains, upper
   MS Valley, and Great Lakes with the upper high centered over the
   central Gulf Coast states. High pressure will remain at the surface
   over much of the East as low pressure develops over the northern
   High Plains. This will maintain southerly winds across the Plains
   with a warm front lifting north across the Dakotas. The moistening
   air mass along with cool temperatures aloft will result in moderate
   destabilization over the northern Plains, and will support scattered
   strong storms mainly late in the day and overnight from eastern MT
   into ND.

   Elsewhere, the remnants of TC Imelda will bring heavy rain to parts
   of east TX as it drifts north, with warm temperatures aloft
   minimizing instability.

   ...Eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas...
   As low pressure deepens over WY and MT, southeast winds will
   increase across the northern Plains, with 30 kt southeast flow at
   850 mb by late afternoon. This will allow for moistening, but most
   of the area will remain capped through the day. Steeper low level
   lapse rates will exist over WY and eastern MT, and into far western
   SD and NE closer to the surface trough. At least isolated late-day
   storms are expected in this zone, with increasing storm coverage
   through the evening due to warm advection with the low-level jet.
   Cool temperatures aloft and marginal deep-layer shear will favor a
   few cells capable of large hail. Winds aloft decrease with eastern
   extent, but cool temperatures aloft and a persistent low-level jet
   will likely support elevated hail into parts of ND overnight.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

   ..Jewell.. 09/18/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 18, 2019
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