Jun 19, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 19 17:31:02 UTC 2019 (20190619 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190619 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190619 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 235,487 51,479,449 Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...
MARGINAL 432,982 35,843,819 New York, NY...Jacksonville, FL...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Pittsburgh, PA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20190619 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 235,635 51,473,436 Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...
5 % 434,887 37,000,537 New York, NY...Jacksonville, FL...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Pittsburgh, PA...
   SPC AC 191731

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
   ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Some damaging wind threat is possible with thunderstorms from the
   Middle Atlantic into the Southeast Thursday. Isolated severe storms
   may also develop across portions of the Plains and Mid Missouri
   Valley.

   ...Middle Atlantic/Southeast...

   Central US upper trough is forecast to approach western OH - middle
   TN - AL by 18z Thursday  as strongest mid-level flow translates
   across the southern Appalachians toward the NC Outer Banks region by
   early evening. Associated surface front should prove convectively
   active through the period with thunderstorms expected to be ongoing
   at 20/12z from OH-KY-TN-northern AL. While a few storms may be
   strong at day break, strongest heating, leading to greater buoyancy,
   should occur from central PA, south across the Carolinas into GA.
   This corridor of increased instability should encourage robust
   convection within an increasingly sheared environment for organized
   thunderstorms. At this time it appears damaging winds will be the
   greatest risk, but some supercell/tornado threat is also expected
   ahead of the forced frontal convection.

   ...Plains/Mid MO Valley...

   Complex convective scenario is expected during the day2 period
   across portions of the Plains. Confidence is not particularly high
   regarding storm coverage and timing for much of the region. Even so,
   based on earlier day2 forecast, have opted to shift SLGT Risk
   downstream a bit into the lower MO Valley for convection that
   develops ahead of early-day short-wave trough. Latest model guidance
   suggests low-level warm advection ahead of the short wave may
   encourage isolated supercells across eastern NE/western IA into
   northwest MO. This activity would develop along eastern edge of
   stronger capping that should suppress convection across much of the
   Plains.

   Highest confidence region for convection will actually be across the
   High Plains from southeast MT into the NE Panhandle region where
   low-level moisture is a bit scant for organized severe. Large-scale
   troughing will affect this area during the latter half of the period
   and high-level diffluence should encourage convection across this
   region late.

   Farther south along the dryline from southwest KS into west TX,
   tropical boundary-layer moisture will surge north across TX with
   near 70F surface dew points expected by peak heating. Latest model
   guidance does not suggest meaningful convection will develop along
   the dryline. However, intense heating across the TX South Plains
   will allow surface temperatures to soar to near 100F, easily
   breaching convective temperatures. Mid-level temperatures remain
   cool at low latitudes with -10C forecast across northwest TX. As a
   result, very steep lapse rates will be observed along the dryline.
   In the absence of subsidence at this longitude, it appears isolated
   severe supercells will develop. For these reasons have introduced 5%
   severe probs for the potential for very large hail with
   dryline-initiated convection.

   During the overnight hours, LLJ should increase across western OK
   into central KS. This could pose a threat for sustaining dryline
   convection, or inducing a few severe storms near the I-70 corridor
   over KS. Strongly considered 15% severe probs over this region to
   account for late night convection. Will monitor this region for an
   upgrade hopeful later short-term model guidance lends more
   confidence in this scenario.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

   ..Darrow.. 06/19/2019

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z