Feb 15, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 15 17:29:51 UTC 2019 (20190215 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20190215 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20190215 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20190215 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 151729

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z


   Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. Saturday
   through Saturday night.

   Models are maintaining the evolution of large-scale troughing that
   should broaden as it develops inland across much of the western and
   central United States.  This will occur downstream of a mid-level
   ridge forecast to amplify further during this period, across the
   eastern Pacific into Alaska, the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and
   adjacent portions of northern British Columbia.  

   ...Pacific Coast region...
   Models suggest midlevel impulses will either weaken as they move
   inland across northern and central CA, while an additional banner of
   vorticity remains located off the WA, OR, to central CA coasts. 
   While forcing for ascent associated with the inland-moving feature
   will be weak, models suggest marginal destabilization could support
   weak thunderstorm activity, given lingering very cold mid-level air
   mass across parts of northern and central CA. 

   ...NC/SC to Tennessee Valley region...
   Southern stream flow is expected to strengthen this forecast period,
   becoming oriented southwesterly from northern Mexico to the central
   and southern Appalachians region, as the aforementioned large-scale
   troughing evolves.  Low-level warm air advection associated with a
   couple of progressive mid-level perturbations, embedded within the
   southern stream, will result in weak, elevated destabilization. 
   This should promote convective showers early in the forecast period,
   as a lead shortwave trough is forecast to move east of the Carolinas
   Saturday afternoon, while additional elevated convection will be
   possible late Saturday night from portions of northern AL into TN,
   attendant to a weak, fast-moving impulse.  Forecast soundings
   suggest MUCAPE around or below 100 J/kg and rooted generally between
   750-850 mb should have a low probability to produce lightning, as
   most of the buoyancy will not become deep enough for charge
   separation.  This thermodynamic analysis is true for the early day
   and late Saturday night convection.

   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Peters.. 02/15/2019