Nov 19, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 19 16:13:55 UTC 2018 (20181119 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20181119 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20181119 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20181119 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 191613

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1013 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida
   Peninsula.

   ...FL Peninsula...

   Weak mid-level height falls will glance northern FL during the first
   half of the period ahead of a weak short-wave trough that will
   deamplify as it ejects into the base of broader eastern US trough.
   Weak buoyancy will exist across the FL warm sector but forecast
   lapse rates are seasonally weak but adequately moist for
   near-surface based instability. Some diabatic heating is also
   expected to contribute to buoyancy. As a result, a few thunderstorms
   could evolve along a cold front as it sags south across the
   Peninsula.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Darrow.. 11/19/2018

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z