SPC AC 260751
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD
PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM IOWA SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF
OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA...
A widespread, potentially significant severe weather event is
possible Tuesday from the central and southern Plains eastward to
the Midwest. Severe storms are also possible across portions of
Ohio and Pennsylvania.
...Central and southern Plains northeastward to Illinois...
A mid-level wave will continue to eject northeastward from Colorado
to Nebraska throughout the day on D3/Tuesday. Strong mid-level flow
will overspread areas on the southern and eastern periphery of this
wave from Oklahoma to Iowa. This flow will increase atop a
warm/moist airmass that will become moderately to strongly unstable
through mid-afternoon as 8 deg C/km lapse rates overlie 60s to near
70 F dewpoints and warming surface temperatures. Convergence along
a surface dryline (expected to be located from eastern Nebraska
southward to west-central Texas) and lift associated with the
approaching wave should result in several areas of scattered
thunderstorms from central Oklahoma northward to eastern Nebraska.
Convection should also be ongoing near a warm front extending from
eastern Nebraska into Iowa during the afternoon that should also
pose a severe risk. Storms may be supercellular and pose a threat
for tornadoes initially, though upscale growth is expected into one
or two linear complexes with time, with damaging wind/hail and
embedded tornadoes as they migrate eastward through Iowa/western
Missouri. Storms should reach Illinois and southern Missouri later
in the forecast period during the overnight hours.
Models are relatively consistent in depicting a band or cluster of
storms in this region during the afternoon as surface
heating/destabilization occurs along an east-to-west oriented
surface boundary in the area. Deep westerly vertical wind profiles
(increasing with height with only minimal veering) support organized
storms with a risk of supercells and linear bands. Hail and wind
damage will be the primary threats with this activity.
...West Texas overnight...
Models have trended stronger with an amplyfing disturbance that
should traverse northern Mexico overnight Tuesday. Meanwhile, a
surface dryline will begin to retreat westward late in the period in
response to a developing lee trough over west Texas in tandem with
the approach of a strengthening mid-level jet. Ascent may result in
a few overnight hail storms east of the dryline, although it
currently appears that a greater threat for activity in this regime
will evolve after 12Z Wednesday.
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