SPC AC 040723
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
The chance for severe thunderstorms on Thursday appears low at this
...Northern Rockies to central High Plains Vicinity...
A shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest states early Thursday
will develop eastward across the northern Rockies by Friday morning.
As this occurs, an upper ridge centered along the High Plains will
develop eastward across the Great Plains. South/southeasterly low
level flow should transport at least modest boundary layer moisture
north and west across the northern Plains into eastern/central MT.
However, forecast guidance varies quite a bit with regards to
moisture return across MT and the western Dakotas. This is resulting
in large spread in instability and convective precipitation signals
across the region. Nevertheless, as the upper trough shifts
eastward, resulting in height falls across the northern Rockies, at
least some thunderstorm potential will exist across the region. A
cold front is forecast to track east across MT during the
evening/overnight hours, to near the MT/ND border by Friday morning.
While isolated thunderstorms are expected ahead of trough over a
broad area from north-central MT southeastward to the eastern WY/CO
High Plains, coverage of strong/severe convection remains too
uncertain to include severe probabilities at this time.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z