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< Day 2 Outlook   Day 4 - 8 Outlook >
May 26, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun May 26 07:51:41 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190526 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20190526 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 260751

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0251 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD
   PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM IOWA SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL
   OKLAHOMA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF
   OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A widespread, potentially significant severe weather event is
   possible Tuesday from the central and southern Plains eastward to
   the Midwest.  Severe storms are also possible across portions of
   Ohio and Pennsylvania.

   ...Central and southern Plains northeastward to Illinois...
   A mid-level wave will continue to eject northeastward from Colorado
   to Nebraska throughout the day on D3/Tuesday.  Strong mid-level flow
   will overspread areas on the southern and eastern periphery of this
   wave from Oklahoma to Iowa.  This flow will increase atop a
   warm/moist airmass that will become moderately to strongly unstable
   through mid-afternoon as 8 deg C/km lapse rates overlie 60s to near
   70 F dewpoints and warming surface temperatures.  Convergence along
   a surface dryline (expected to be located from eastern Nebraska
   southward to west-central Texas) and lift associated with the
   approaching wave should result in several areas of scattered
   thunderstorms from central Oklahoma northward to eastern Nebraska. 
   Convection should also be ongoing near a warm front extending from
   eastern Nebraska into Iowa during the afternoon that should also
   pose a severe risk.  Storms may be supercellular and pose a threat
   for tornadoes initially, though upscale growth is expected into one
   or two linear complexes with time, with damaging wind/hail and
   embedded tornadoes as they migrate eastward through Iowa/western
   Missouri.  Storms should reach Illinois and southern Missouri later
   in the forecast period during the overnight hours.

   ...Ohio/Pennsylvania...
   Models are relatively consistent in depicting a band or cluster of
   storms in this region during the afternoon as surface
   heating/destabilization occurs along an east-to-west oriented
   surface boundary in the area.  Deep westerly vertical wind profiles
   (increasing with height with only minimal veering) support organized
   storms with a risk of supercells and linear bands.  Hail and wind
   damage will be the primary threats with this activity.

   ...West Texas overnight...
   Models have trended stronger with an amplyfing disturbance that
   should traverse northern Mexico overnight Tuesday.  Meanwhile, a
   surface dryline will begin to retreat westward late in the period in
   response to a developing lee trough over west Texas in tandem with
   the approach of a strengthening mid-level jet.  Ascent may result in
   a few overnight hail storms east of the dryline, although it
   currently appears that a greater threat for activity in this regime
   will evolve after 12Z Wednesday.

   ..Cook.. 05/26/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: May 26, 2019
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