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Feb 22, 2019 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 22 07:13:49 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190222 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20190222 0830Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220713

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0113 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong storms may occur Sunday morning along the central Gulf
   Coast.

   ...Central Gulf Coast...

   Strong upper trough that ejects across the Mid MS Valley/OH Valley
   region late in the day2 period will flatten heights across the
   northeastern US Sunday. Associated deep surface low will lift into
   QC during the day and occlude. While primary large-scale forcing for
   ascent will spread well north of appreciable buoyancy, trailing
   surface front is expected to provide the focus for deep convection,
   especially near the Gulf Coast. The greatest risk for a few strong
   storms will occur before 18z from southeast LA into the FL Panhandle
   ahead of the wind shift. Model guidance suggests a narrow corridor
   of pre-frontal moisture will advance inland such that near-surface
   based instability could support a few strong storms along southern
   fringe of stronger cyclonic flow aloft. At this time it appears
   gusty winds would be the primary threat with a loosely organized
   frontal squall line. Frontal convection should weaken during the
   afternoon as it encounters increasingly hostile air mass downstream.

   ..Darrow.. 02/22/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
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Page last modified: February 22, 2019
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