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Apr 8, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 8 07:20:59 UTC 2020 (Print Version | 20200408 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20200408 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 080720

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0220 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   WEST TX AND VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Some threat for isolated severe thunderstorms may evolve on Friday
   into Friday night across west Texas and vicinity.

   ...Synopsis...
   The cutoff upper low over the Southwest is forecast to begin
   ejecting eastward on Friday. Thunderstorm potential across much of
   the central and eastern CONUS will be limited as a surface ridge
   becomes centered over the MS/TN Valleys. A surface low is forecast
   to gradually deepen across the central High Plains by afternoon.  

   ...West TX and vicinity... 
   Low-level moisture may begin to return to portions of west TX and
   eastern NM Friday afternoon, to the east of a surface
   trough/developing dryline, though considerable uncertainty remains
   regarding the timing and magnitude of boundary-layer moisture
   return. Given sufficient moisture return, at least isolated
   thunderstorm development will be possible along the developing
   dryline, with a conditional risk of a supercell or two given
   moderate deep-layer shear.

   If confidence increases that surface-based convection will develop
   along the dryline, then an upgrade to Slight Risk will be considered
   in subsequent outlooks. Even if surface-based convection does not
   develop, elevated convection may pose some hail risk Friday night as
   the upper low begins to approach the region.

   ..Dean/Dial.. 04/08/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: April 08, 2020
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