SPC AC 220637
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Only isolated, weak thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from
southeast Texas across coastal Louisiana.
High pressure will remain centered across the Great Lake and Midwest
behind a slow-moving amplified upper trough across the Northeast.
Little instability will be present to support thunderstorms over
most of the CONUS as a result of mainly offshore flow over the Gulf
of Mexico and Mid Atlantic. The greatest threat for a few
thunderstorms will be across the northwestern Gulf, where a surface
low will form in response to a weak wave moving out of TX. Warm
advection just off the surface may result in sufficient elevated
instability for lightning from far southeast TX during the day
toward coastal LA overnight.
Elsewhere, a lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out over the
mountains of northern NM into central CO where heating may lead to
minimal instability, but coverage is currently expected to be less
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z