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Jul 21, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 21 07:27:22 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190721 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20190721 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 210727

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
   NORTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday across
   eastern North Carolina.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough will remain in place across the eastern U.S.
   while an expansive upper-level anticyclone persists across the Four
   Corners/Great Basin.  A surface cold front will extend from the
   coastal Mid-Atlantic region southwest through the Tennessee Valley
   and south TX Tuesday afternoon.

   ...Eastern NC...
   Latest guidance suggests the cold front will continue to move
   steadily southeast during the day as unseasonably strong surface
   high pressure builds south across the central U.S.  Despite some
   model variability on the frontal position, there is sufficient
   confidence for a favorable overlap of deep-layer shear (35-40 kts)
   and pockets of moderate surface-based instability across eastern NC
   to introduce a MRGL Risk with this outlook. The presence of a very
   moist air mass (lower-mid 70s surface dew points and PW values in
   excess of two inches) will contribute to a risk of damaging winds
   with a few of the stronger storms developing in the vicinity of the
   front.

   ..Bunting.. 07/21/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: July 21, 2019
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